FWDREFORWARD REAL ESTATE ADVISORY

    FWDRE · Data Index

    The Manhattan Storefront Truth Index

    A monthly, dated read of Manhattan retail's actual state — openings pipeline, closures, churn — built from public records. Every number carries its evidence date. Where the evidence doesn't decide, we say so.

    Records as of Aug 25, 2026·Page rendered Aug 26, 2026
    01

    The headline board

    The state of Manhattan's storefronts right now, computed live from the fused truth layer. Each figure below is a real count from public records — none is a projection.

    45,560
    Manhattan storefronts tracked
    as of Aug 25, 2026
    65.4%
    Carry a live status verdict
    29,812 of 45,560
    1.3%–21.1%
    Closure band — hard-verified through likely
    386 verified · +5,901 likely · of status-carrying
    93.4%
    Re-resolved within the last 7 days
    32,223 of 34,484 stamped

    The closure figure is a band, not a point: its floor counts only storefronts that cleared the verified-closed bar, its ceiling adds everything currently reading likely-closed. The truth sits inside — most likely above the floor, because closures are structurally undercounted. as of Aug 25, 2026

    02

    Churn leaderboard — corridors by closed-share

    Manhattan's canonical retail corridors, ranked by the share of their status-carrying storefronts currently reading closed or likely-closed. The downtown-versus-uptown story tells itself.

    # Corridor Storefronts Closed-share 6-mo net
    1 East Village 2,017 19.3% n/a
    2 Financial District-Battery Park City 1,245 18.6% n/a
    3 West Village 1,537 17.4% n/a
    4 Upper East Side-Yorkville 897 16.8% n/a
    5 Upper West Side-Manhattan Valley 474 16.7% n/a
    6 East Midtown-Turtle Bay 1,409 16.5% n/a
    7 SoHo-Little Italy-Hudson Square 2,716 16.1% n/a
    8 Tribeca-Civic Center 1,291 15.6% n/a
    9 Greenwich Village 1,332 15.5% n/a
    10 Chinatown-Two Bridges 1,142 15.3% n/a

    Monthly net-transition history (the 6-mo column) is not yet published — that series is being built and will populate here rather than be estimated. Closed-share above is a live cross-section.

    Closed-share = closed + likely-closed as a share of status-carrying storefronts in the corridor · as of Aug 25, 2026

    03

    The coming-soon pipeline

    A pending liquor-license application is a storefront announcing itself before it opens. This is the openings pipeline the city is processing right now — the leading edge of what Manhattan retail becomes next.

    603
    SLA applications pending in Manhattan
    snapshot Aug 25, 2026
    82
    Received in the last 30 days
    newest filings in the pipeline
    Buildout & alteration permits filed in Manhattan (renovation, turnover prep, capital investment)
    4,433

    90-day window ending Apr 2, 2026 — the freshest DOB filings we hold. This feed lags; the window is anchored to its vintage, not to today.

    Pipeline counts reflect the SLA county filing for New York (Manhattan). A pending application is a signal of intent, not a guarantee of opening — some are withdrawn or denied. We show the count and its snapshot date; we do not project openings from it.

    04

    How to read these numbers

    Every storefront on this page lives in one of three tiers, and the third keeps the other two honest. Verified-open means dated, current proof of operation on at least one axis. Verified-closed requires two or more independent sources agreeing, one of which is a direct observation — paper alone never kills a business here. Honestly-unknown is where the evidence is stale or conflicting, and we say so instead of guessing.

    That is why closure is reported as a band, not a point. A single figure would flatter us; the band's floor counts only closures that cleared the two-source bar, its ceiling adds everything that merely looks closed. The error direction is known and disclosed — closures are undercounted, so the truth most likely sits above the floor.

    Vintage lock. Counts may change as new evidence arrives; every figure on this page reflects records as of its printed date. A number here and a number in a report can differ — the later evidence date governs.

    Read the full methodology

    Sources — NYC Open Data (DOHMH, DCWP, DOB, 311, LL157) · NY State Liquor Authority · US Census / ACS · MTA · PLUTO · Overture Maps (ODbL / CDLA attribution) · Foursquare Open Source Places · OpenStreetMap contributors · Google (rented signal, input-only). FWDRE fuses public records into dated, confidence-banded reads. Figures are evidence-based estimates, not guarantees — verify before contractual reliance. Not an appraisal.

    05

    For journalists

    This index is built to be cited. The figures are dated, sourced, and reproducible from public records — quote them, and tell us if you think one is wrong.

    Preferred citation

    “FWDRE Manhattan Storefront Truth Index, August 2026.”

    Data questions, methodology detail, or a corridor cut you don't see here — hello@fwdre.com.

    Every figure above is computed live from public records and carries its own as-of date · records as of Aug 25, 2026